On paper, every deal looks like a winner—until reality hits.
If you’ve ever reviewed a commercial real estate (CRE) pitch deck, you’ve seen the same glowing numbers: 18% IRR, 8% cash-on-cash return, and an “attractive” 2x equity multiple in just five years. It’s hard not to be tempted. But as seasoned investors know, projections are just that—projections. And relying solely on optimistic pro formas can be the fastest way to get burned.
In the world of passive real estate investing, one of the most critical yet overlooked skills is learning how to stress-test a deal. While you may not be operating the property yourself, your capital is still at risk. And if you want to preserve and grow that capital over time, you can’t afford to take the sponsor’s numbers at face value.
That’s where stress-testing comes in.
This blog will walk you through the mindset, techniques, and real-world metrics you can use to evaluate whether a deal holds up when things don’t go as planned. We’ll show you how experienced limited partners (LPs) break down assumptions, test the limits of a deal’s performance, and make investment decisions based on realistic—not rosy—scenarios.
Because here’s the truth: markets shift, expenses rise, tenants leave, and financing gets tighter. And when that happens, the deal you thought would double your money might just return your principal—if you’re lucky.
By the end of this post, you’ll know how to:
Identify the most common areas where projections go wrong
Ask the right questions to sponsors about downside scenarios
Use simple tools to run stress tests—even if you’re not a spreadsheet wizard
Evaluate whether a deal is built to survive turbulence or only thrive in perfect conditions
This isn’t about fear—it’s about fortifying your investing approach. The best LPs are prepared, informed, and calm when markets wobble. And that preparation starts before the check is written.
So let’s dive in—and learn how to stress-test like a pro, so you never get caught off guard when the market delivers a curveball.